To all who tend to think, or otherwise support the narrative, that the Iraqi government doesn’t have control over certain militia groups, think again. The calm of the skies over Erbil tonight, in contrast to the past few days and nights, is evidence of Iraq’s full control over those groups. Tonight Baghdad needed the Kurdistan Region’s approval to send oil through KRI’s oil infrastructure to Ceyhan, Türkiye. As such, they must have instructed those groups to stand down for the time being. Now that “an agreement has been reached,” per KRG’s negotiating team, it is worth observing the change in the operation of those groups in the coming days and nights.
It is worth mentioning that recently, on this platform, I made several recommendations for the KRG/KRI to approach this new opportunity to guarantee some long-term gains. The details of the agreement between Baghdad and KRI remain unknown at this point. However, the resumption of attacks on KRI in the coming days may jeopardize the implementation of these agreements.
Case in point: we shouldn’t think that these groups are rogue elements acting outside of a general guideline set forth by, or against, Baghdad’s wishes.